AI in Diplomacy: Can Technology Foster a More Peaceful World?

There are currently 56 ongoing conflicts globally involving 96 countries (Vision for Humanity, 2024; Salhani, 2024). The issue to mitigate this lies in the increasing norm of using force. Leaders are opting for peace-undermining military solutions, believing they can succeed through force rather than diplomacy. I would even challenge that as a reason. War seems to be the new status quo, disregarding also the thousands of lives lost in the process. What does it really mean? I let numbers speak: in 2023, the global expenditure on military operations reached $2.44 trillion USD, while peacebuilding and peacekeeping operations were at $34.1 billion. (International Peace Institute, 2023; and Dyvik, 2024). Result? 110 million people are displaced globally as we speak, and in 2023, more civilians were killed or injured by airstrikes, bombs, and artillery than in any year over the past decade. (International Rescue Committee, 2024; and Sabbagh, 2024)

Humanity struggles to learn from history, as violence remains a persistent and ineffective approach to resolving conflicts. With Artificial Intelligence (AI) being increasingly applied across industries and domains, I wonder, can this technology offer a solution to these escalating tensions and “save our world” from falling apart? Can it transfer diplomacy? Is the field ready at all?

After exchanging with hundreds of AI experts globally in the last over 6 years, I see great potential for AI in the world of diplomacy. This great potential is however wrapped in peril that needs the human mind, heart and soul to remove. On one hand, AI can revolutionize diplomacy and streamline negotiations (for instance through AI-driven conflict analysis tools and tailored approaches to negotiations), and also enhance global security (monitoring local news, tracking down misinformation, identifying potential conflicts, and anticipating trends (Delcker, 2023)). On the other hand, it can exacerbate existing disparities, fuel an arms race, increase sophisticated cyber threats, and deepen distrust among nations. This contrast makes me wonder: Are we prepared to handle this double-edged sword wisely, or will we let it cut deeper into the fabric of international relations?

AI readiness will likely determine future economic growth, potentially widening the prosperity gap between AI-ready and non-AI-ready countries (Georgieva, 2024). The United Nations (UN) has a critical role in promoting international cooperation and addressing this challenge posed by AI. The question is: are global leaders also prepared to create policies that ensure AI benefits everyone or will they simply reinforce existing inequalities?

Experts emphasize proactive AI governance to prevent risks from an unchecked race driven by strategic advantage and profit​ (Pasquini, 2024). Proposals range from informal agreements to initiatives like the WEF’s AI Governance Alliance and the UN Secretary-General’s AI Advisory Body​. These bodies aim to provide technical assessments and promote international cooperation. However, the absence of major players like China and Russia, along with the underrepresentation of developing nations, poses significant challenges​ (Zhou, 2024).

The centralization of AI development in the Global North also creates power imbalances, leaving the Global South in a consumer role, sometimes with AI models that do not even fit local contexts (Antony et al., 2024). This problem is further complicated by the geopolitical impacts of AI, which potentially undermines the autonomy of countries that import these technologies (World Economic Forum, 2024). Governments face the dilemma of attracting investments from tech giants while protecting public interests. The lack of diversity in AI development leads to biased outcomes, disproportionately affecting marginalized communities. Are we considering the global impacts of our AI advancements, or are we perpetuating existing inequalities?

We are currently in the “inter-AI years,” a brief window to influence the trajectory of AI development before norms, values, and standards become entrenched (Cohen & Lee, 2023). Decisions made today will shape the future of AI and its impact on global power dynamics. This period is crucial for determining the path of AI, and it is vital that we get it right. AI’s potential to boost economic growth is enormous, with estimates suggesting that widespread AI adoption could increase global GDP by nearly $7 trillion over ten years (Cohen & Lee, 2023). However, realizing these benefits depends on the availability of energy, computing power, data, and models, not even mentioning AI literacy.

To leverage AI for global peace, we must move beyond mere regulatory frameworks and embrace a collaborative and inclusive approach. The UN’s role in promoting international cooperation is crucial. As AI continues to evolve, the question remains: Will we harness AI to create a more peaceful and just world, or will short-sighted national interests undermine its potential and allow it to further destabilize global relations? Time will tell. I personally see great potential for a better world where we augment our human abilities and capabilities with cognitive technologies. However, I would also like to emphasize that diplomacy thrives on the art of empathy, personal connection, and building trust – qualities I can’t imagine machines ever truly mastering.